Hype cycles

A hype cycle describes the various stages of the adoption a trend into popular consciousness (See Figure 1). The adoptions is often characterised by 5 stages:

1. Trigger: This is the first stage, where a particular trend starts gaining momentum. It could be a new fad, belief, or behavior that triggers attention and begins to attract followers. Media and social networks often play a significant role in this phase, enhancing visibility and generating curiosity.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: The trend quickly gains popularity, often driven by word of mouth, social media hype, or notable endorsements. At this stage, the trend or delusion is seen as a must-follow, leading to inflated expectations about its potential benefits, relevance, or importance. The public can become overly optimistic, ignoring potential downsides or drawbacks.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: As the reality sets in, the trend begins to lose its luster. People start noticing the shortcomings, or they simply get bored and move on to the next big thing. The trend or delusion fails to meet the inflated expectations and falls into the trough of disillusionment.
4. Slope of Enlightenment: In this phase, the trend starts being seen for what it truly is. Some might still find value in it, but on a more realistic level. Those who continue to follow the trend do so with more understanding and less blind faith. It is a time of learning and growing wisdom.
5. Plateau of Productivity: Finally, the trend settles into a more stable state. For trends, it might become a normal part of life for a group of people, albeit with less hype and more practicality. For delusions, this stage might mean that a certain segment continues to believe, but it is generally recognized as a delusion by the majority.

Figure 1. During a new hype cycle we often act as if we have never seen hype before before.