Popular Delusions

A delusion is a common false fixed belief that is not amenable to change in light of conflicting evidence. They exhibit in society as ideas or cultural fads that become transiently popular. Historically, they follow a hype cycle (see Figure 1), starting with a trigger then moving rapidly into a hype phase at which point they cause frantic activity of crowds such as the South Sea Bubble (see Figure 2), Tulip Mania or Witch Mania. Today popular delusions have become ever more transmissible via memes and the advertising industry.

Figure 1. Popular Delusions Gartner Hype Cycle

Figure 2. Night Wind Hawkers sold stock on the streets during the South Sea Bubble. (The Great Picture of Folly, 1720)

Popular delusions can have significant impacts on society and individuals. They can lead to irrational behaviors, poor decision-making, and in some cases, can result in harm or injustice. Understanding and recognizing these delusions can help individuals and societies make more informed and rational decisions.

It's important to note that what may be considered a "delusion" can be subjective and may vary across different cultures and societies. What one group considers a delusion, another group may consider a deeply held belief or tradition. Therefore, the term should be used with caution and understanding of its potential cultural implications.

The Pessimist Archive tracks popular delusions overtime to remind us when we are in a fad, they may seem permanent but they are merely temporary blips.

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