Ecological Crisis Timeline

Figure 1. Timeline of global risk

It is impossible for any scientist to say, what catastrophes will be brought by the ecological crisis and when. The best consensus we have as highlighted by Sir David King in 2022: "What we do in the next 3-4 years, I believe, will determine the future of humanity. The best predictions of a timeline are illustrated in Figure 1 and is primarily calculated by: (CO₂) in the atmosphere is directly proportional to earth's population (P) multiplied by the energy (E) needed to service (S) that population. i.e...

P (population) x S (services used by people) x E (energy needed to power those services) x C (carbon required to make that energy) = CO₂ (carbon dioxide output)

In the developing world, population growth is faster and as new consumers progress up Maslow's hierarchy and the demand for cars, air conditioning and the modern necessities grow.

Every part per million (ppm) we go past 400ppm of CO₂ in the atmosphere increases our chance of a disaster happening. Whilst the everyday chances of something happening is remote, everyday by doing nothing we are purchasing another lottery ticket for doomsday. The most likely occurrence would be if we remove the foundations of Maslow's hierarchy of human needs lack of water and food which causes mass migration would be the most likely tipping point. “Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.”