Ecological Crisis Timeline

Figure 1. Timeline of global risk

It is impossible for anyone to say, when or what catastrophes will be brought by the ecological crisis. The best predictions we have of a timeline are illustrated in Figure 1.

Timelines like these are all essentially calculated using deviations of a simple equation:

P (population) x S (services used by people) x E (energy needed to power those services) x C (carbon required to make that energy) = CO₂ (carbon dioxide output)

The main takeaway is that very part per million (ppm) we go past 400ppm of CO₂ in the atmosphere increases our chance of a disaster happening. Whilst the everyday chances of something happening is remote, everyday by doing nothing we are purchasing another lottery ticket for doomsday. The most likely occurrence would be if we remove the foundations of Maslow's hierarchy of human needs lack of water and food which causes mass migration would be the most likely tipping point. “Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.”