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[[File:Cognitive biases.jpg|alt=Cognitive biases|Cognitive biases|thumb]]'''A cognitive bias is a systematic error in thinking that occurs when people are processing and interpreting information in the world around them. They are predictable patterns of thought and behaviour leading to incorrect conclusions.'''
#REDIRECT [[https://burnzero.com/Cognitive Biases]]<div class="res-img">[[File:Bias Hierarchy2.png|alt=Bias Hierarchy|center]]</div>


Cognitive biases persist in society as they are self-reinforcing by a combination of the [[Dunning Kruger effect]] and the [[Confirmation Bias]]. Below is a list of the most prevalent cognitive biases in society ranked on their importance:


# [[Optimism bias]] - a computer cannot tell you whether it will rain or not, only the probability of it occurring.
#[[Additive Bias]]
#Availability Heuristic<ref>https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow</ref> - people tend to use the ease with which they can think of examples when making decisions.
#Anchoring Effect - the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions.
#Hindsight Bias - the tendency to think that an event was more obvious or predictable than it really was.
#Sunk Cost Fallacy - whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.
#Halo Effect - people assume a person or thing is good in every way because of one good characteristic.
#Scarcity effect - makes people more likely to buy something when they think it’s about to run out or be taken away from them.


=== Thought paradoxes ===
'''Cognitive biases are systematic errors in thinking that occur in all people. They occur when processing and interpreting information from the world around us. In essence, they are predictable patterns of thought and behaviour that lead to incorrect conclusions.'''
Thought paradoxes are cognitive processes marked by contradiction of typical logical processes. There are many, below we have listed a few.


==== Allais’ Paradox ====
The most popular bias in society is the Lucid Self Bias, pictured at the top of this page. The Lucid Self Bias is the tendency for one's self to think that their thought patterns are not subject to bias and should be the starting point of self analysis. This bias is constantly reinforced by a combination of the [[Dunning Kruger effect]] and the [[Confirmation Bias]]. After this these primary biases there are a wide range of other biases which have been documented, which can be loosely categorised into affecting memory, social, learning, belief, money and politics:
Imagine you have to participate in two lotteries, Lottery 1 and Lottery 2. In each lottery, you have two choices. Here are the choices for Lottery 1:


* Option A:  Win $1,000,000 for certain (100% probability)
# '''[[Self-serving bias|Self-serving Bias]]''' - the tendency people have to seek out information and use it in ways that advance their self-interest.
* Option A*: A 10% chance of winning $5,000,000, an 89% chance of winning $1,000,000, and a 1% chance of winning nothing.
#[[Fundamental attribution error|'''Fundamental attribution error''']] - an individual's tendency to attribute another's actions to their character or personality, while attributing their behavior to external situational factors outside of their control.
#[[Optimism bias|'''Optimism Bias''']] - a computer cannot tell you whether it will rain or not, only the probability of it occurring.
#[[Additive Bias|'''Additive Bias''']] - we may be biased toward adding more things—more resources, more rules, more habits and responsibilities—rather than the opposite.
#[[Rosy Retrospection Bias|'''Rosy Retrospection Bias''']] - people overestimate the good aspects of the past.
#'''[[Sunk Cost Fallacy]]''' - whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.
#[[The Diderot Effect|'''The Diderot Effect''']] - perhaps linked to the confirmation bias where we surround ourselves with information the  confirms preexisting beliefs. The Diderot effect takes this into the physical realm, we generally surround ourselves with objects that fit our current sense of identity.
#'''[[The singularity effect|The Singularity Effect]]''' - we care disproportionately about an individual as compared to a group.
#'''Availability Heuristic'''<ref>https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow</ref> - people tend to use the ease with which they can think of examples when making decisions.
#'''Anchoring Effect''' - the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions.
#'''Hindsight Bias''' - the tendency to think that an event was more obvious or predictable than it really was.
#'''Halo Effect''' - people assume a person or thing is good in every way because of one good characteristic.
#'''Scarcity Effect''' - makes people more likely to buy something when they think it’s about to run out or be taken away from them.
#'''Appeal to Pity''' - someone accused of a crime using a cane or walker to appear more feeble in front of a jury is one example of appeal to pity.
#'''Bandwagon Fallacy''' - assumes something is true (or right or good) because others agree with it. In other words, the fallacy argues that if everyone thinks a certain way, then you should, too.
#
== Personal Bias Suppression ==
Analyzing one's beliefs, preferences, or associations while experiencing personal bias suppression can lead to new perspectives that would take years of in depth psychoanalysis. The suppression of this innate tendency often induces the realization that certain aspects of a person's personality, world view and culture are not reflective of objective truths about reality, but are in fact subjective or even delusional opinions.<ref>Horváth, Lajos; Szummer, Csaba; Szabo, Attila (2017). "Weak phantasy and visionary phantasy: the phenomenological significance of altered states of consciousness". ''Phenomenology and the Cognitive Sciences''. '''17''' (1): 117–129. doi:10.1007/s11097-016-9497-4. ISSN 1568-7759.</ref> This realization often leads to or accompanies deep states of insight and critical introspection which can create significant alterations in a person's perspective that last anywhere from days, weeks, months, or even years after the experience itself. Personal bias suppression is one of the hallmark effects of using [[psychedelics]].


Which option would you choose?
== Bias Perception Advantage ==
 
Once you can see bias in yourself you will start to see bias in others. Artificial intelligence is doing this already by taking advantage of human heuristics to convince us that AI constructed language is in fact coming from a human. This is because human judgments of AI-generated language are handicapped by intuitive but flawed heuristics such as associating first-person pronouns, authentic words, or family topics with humanity. The latest GPT language algorithms know this and are taking advantage of this fact.<ref>AI-Mediated Communication: How the Perception that Profile Text was Written by AI Affects Trustworthiness. CHI '19: Proceedings of the 2019 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing SystemsMay 2019 Paper No.: 239Pages 1–13https://doi.org/10.1145/3290605.3300469</ref>
Now let’s go to Lottery 2:
 
* Option B: A 11% chance of winning $1,000,000 and an 89% chance of winning nothing.
* Option B*: A 10% chance of winning $5,000,000 and a 90% chance of winning nothing.
 
'''Which option would you choose?'''
 
From a probabilistic viewpoint, if you choose option A you should also have chosen option B and if you have chosen option A* you should have chosen option B* because these two options are identical, at least in relation to options A and B. Before your head explodes, suffice it to say that a rational investor would have chosen either options A and B or options A* and B*, but not A and B* or A* and B.
 
Yet, a large minority of people will choose option A (the safe gain) and option B*. The reason is that when compared to option B, option B* seems like you got roughly the same odds of winning, but if you win you win five times as much as in option B. So option B* looks more interesting. Meanwhile, in the first lottery, the chance of winning nothing is a mere 1%, yet even such a little chance of missing out on a certain gain of $1,000,000 is enough to tempt people to forego the chance of winning $5,000,000 and take the safe $1,000,000.
 
Obviously, investors make similar bets all the time in financial markets. Option A is essentially a bond investment, while option A* is a typical stock market investment. Option B is an income stock with steady dividends while option B* is a growth stock with no dividends but a bright future.


'''References'''
'''References'''

Latest revision as of 21:06, 14 December 2022

Bias Hierarchy


Cognitive biases are systematic errors in thinking that occur in all people. They occur when processing and interpreting information from the world around us. In essence, they are predictable patterns of thought and behaviour that lead to incorrect conclusions.

The most popular bias in society is the Lucid Self Bias, pictured at the top of this page. The Lucid Self Bias is the tendency for one's self to think that their thought patterns are not subject to bias and should be the starting point of self analysis. This bias is constantly reinforced by a combination of the Dunning Kruger effect and the Confirmation Bias. After this these primary biases there are a wide range of other biases which have been documented, which can be loosely categorised into affecting memory, social, learning, belief, money and politics:

  1. Self-serving Bias - the tendency people have to seek out information and use it in ways that advance their self-interest.
  2. Fundamental attribution error - an individual's tendency to attribute another's actions to their character or personality, while attributing their behavior to external situational factors outside of their control.
  3. Optimism Bias - a computer cannot tell you whether it will rain or not, only the probability of it occurring.
  4. Additive Bias - we may be biased toward adding more things—more resources, more rules, more habits and responsibilities—rather than the opposite.
  5. Rosy Retrospection Bias - people overestimate the good aspects of the past.
  6. Sunk Cost Fallacy - whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.
  7. The Diderot Effect - perhaps linked to the confirmation bias where we surround ourselves with information the confirms preexisting beliefs. The Diderot effect takes this into the physical realm, we generally surround ourselves with objects that fit our current sense of identity.
  8. The Singularity Effect - we care disproportionately about an individual as compared to a group.
  9. Availability Heuristic[1] - people tend to use the ease with which they can think of examples when making decisions.
  10. Anchoring Effect - the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions.
  11. Hindsight Bias - the tendency to think that an event was more obvious or predictable than it really was.
  12. Halo Effect - people assume a person or thing is good in every way because of one good characteristic.
  13. Scarcity Effect - makes people more likely to buy something when they think it’s about to run out or be taken away from them.
  14. Appeal to Pity - someone accused of a crime using a cane or walker to appear more feeble in front of a jury is one example of appeal to pity.
  15. Bandwagon Fallacy - assumes something is true (or right or good) because others agree with it. In other words, the fallacy argues that if everyone thinks a certain way, then you should, too.

Personal Bias Suppression

Analyzing one's beliefs, preferences, or associations while experiencing personal bias suppression can lead to new perspectives that would take years of in depth psychoanalysis. The suppression of this innate tendency often induces the realization that certain aspects of a person's personality, world view and culture are not reflective of objective truths about reality, but are in fact subjective or even delusional opinions.[2] This realization often leads to or accompanies deep states of insight and critical introspection which can create significant alterations in a person's perspective that last anywhere from days, weeks, months, or even years after the experience itself. Personal bias suppression is one of the hallmark effects of using psychedelics.

Bias Perception Advantage

Once you can see bias in yourself you will start to see bias in others. Artificial intelligence is doing this already by taking advantage of human heuristics to convince us that AI constructed language is in fact coming from a human. This is because human judgments of AI-generated language are handicapped by intuitive but flawed heuristics such as associating first-person pronouns, authentic words, or family topics with humanity. The latest GPT language algorithms know this and are taking advantage of this fact.[3]

References

  1. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow
  2. Horváth, Lajos; Szummer, Csaba; Szabo, Attila (2017). "Weak phantasy and visionary phantasy: the phenomenological significance of altered states of consciousness". Phenomenology and the Cognitive Sciences. 17 (1): 117–129. doi:10.1007/s11097-016-9497-4. ISSN 1568-7759.
  3. AI-Mediated Communication: How the Perception that Profile Text was Written by AI Affects Trustworthiness. CHI '19: Proceedings of the 2019 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing SystemsMay 2019 Paper No.: 239Pages 1–13https://doi.org/10.1145/3290605.3300469

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